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(FR)
More than ever, Israel remains an attractive market despite
the victory of Hamas
"As is the case with financial markets in general,
the Israeli stock exchange is tending to become less sensitive
to events linked to geopolitical factors or to natural disasters",
was the estimation of Professor Leonardo Leiderman on the
occasion of a short speech, delivered in Zurich on the theme
"Israel's economy in a changing Middle East", at
the invitation of Bank Hapoalim Switzerland and of the Swiss-Israeli
Chamber of Commerce. Commenting on the recent Palestinian
elections, this Professor of Economics at the University of
Tel-Aviv and Chief Economist of Bank Hapoalim - ranked no.
1 in Israel and 23rd amongst foreign institutions in Switzerland
- is convinced that "as regards relations with Hamas,
it will be necessary to display pragmatism".
Thanks to well-throttled inflation, annual growth in GDP
of around 5%, to the fruits of an appropriate monetary policy
and to incentive-creating fiscal measures, the Israeli economy
is benefiting fully from favourable momentum, characterised
by solid fundamental aspects. "This trend is likely to
continue and even to strengthen", explains Leonardo Leiderman.
Two elements have played a leading role in this improvement
: the very sustained level of exports, with high-tech as its
motor, and foreign investment, whose level is constantly rising.
To such an extent that the Israeli stock market has become
comparable with that of Japan. Nevertheless, there is room
for Israeli shares in every portfolio. More than ever, the
economic future of the Hebrew State will depend on global
conditions somewhere in the world, in particular those affecting
emerging markets.
Leonardo Leiderman presented the hypothesis that Hamas will
end up adopting a pragmatic approach towards Israel and the
western world, leaving the door open for foreign aid as well
as for the start of new negotiations with Jerusalem. He added
that as long as the United Nations Security Council failed
to reach an agreement with Teheran concerning nuclear weapons,
Iran would remain a risk factor. Despite the renewed uncertainty
concerning the Middle East, Leonardo Leiderman ended on an
optimistic note : as long as the security situation within
the Israeli borders does not deteriorate and as long as global
and monetary growth continue to follow this route , the Israeli
economy will benefit from favourable momentum.
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